By tasos arniakos
You must understand that the predictable and the unpredictable events referred to in the prologue are due to the fact that these lines were written in the heart of March accompanied by the weight of the complete overthrow of our mundane lives by the global onslaught of the overwhelming and deadly Coronovirus pandemic. Arm in arm with an undeclared hybrid war with the neighbour wet, cold and wintry. So why doesn’t he react? Because the ugly one, as usual, is rich and keeps, clothes and feeds the beautiful though poor wife until today. What should the poor man do, he puts up with her and is obliged to turn to her side most of the time. That is why the first month of Spring “sometimes cries, sometimes laughs” and changes from cold and snow to “skin flaying and shoot withering March”. However this bad weather is anonymous as shown by its low intensity and duration.

The recent trend in this country to give a name to bad weather coming from a list of mythological or historical personalities, in alphabetical order and changing the gender each time, has been adopted by colleagues at the Athens National Observatory (EAA) mimicking the naming of strong tropical cyclones by colleagues mainly in the U.S.A. Here names are usually given to bad weather affecting the whole of Greece, however this is not always successful as with last year’s anaemic “Phoebus”. The EAA gains promotion, advertising profits and relevance. However as well as the sensation caused it offers some encyclopaedic details of the personalities.

The public’s need for a complete weather forecast becomes more insistent by the day as it requires greater accuracy in order to plan its everyday life. In short, the most difficult question I have to answer each time the weather deteriorates comes from my wife. “When should I hang out the washing?” As you will appreciate any oversights will result in equally serious consequences.A signed daily weather forecast is a very demanding job. The key element to the approach is the analysis and evaluation of numerical forecasting models.
There are many weather forecasting models worldwide and regional which help in achieving a better approach to the difficulties of a local weather forecast, offering the likelihood of success of many scenarios. These start with measurements of meteorological data which are extrapolated in time. However they project weather trends rather than actual developments. These models are very useful tools but do not always give the right answer. Thankfully Nature still keeps many secrets from us. This happens because the ability to forecast the atmosphere requires flexibility according to the time of the year and the applicable weather conditions. Global success rates for weather forecasting are about 90- 100% for the next day and the day after, 80-90% for the third and fourth day and about 70% for the sixth and seventh. Summer and winter give greater chances of success than spring and autumn which are more capricious seasons of unstable weather.

After the seventh day, the likelihood of successful forecasts drops to 50-60%. It’s a toss up whether you win. This is why the knowledge, understanding and experience of the meteorologist is and will continue to be indispensable for many years to come. However let’s leave the theory and move on to practice. This year around the time of the Epiphany the storm Hephaestion arrived. An unfortunate choice of name as in the homeland of the Macedonian general and close friend of Alexander the Great, the phenomena were hardly noticeable whilst in the windswept east by the Aegean it created a considerable storm. Hephaestion in fact brought torrential rain to Euboia, the Cyclades and Crete, strong thunderstorms to the coastal areas and snow to the mountains and foothills of Central Greece. Vilia, Erythres, Plataies and Thebes were inundated with snow, the Aegean swept by winds of 10-12 Beaufort, ships tied up in port and arctic temperatures of -14 degrees in the mountains of Fokida, -12 in Grevena and Ptolemaida.
Fortunately there were no casualties nor did the snow settle in the northern suburbs of Athens, even less in Syntagma Square. The outcome however upset a lot of people who were angry with the “incompetent” meteorologists, demanding to know who was responsible and for apologies on bended knee. As if we had promised them missing people, coffins, tears, cars driving through muddy waters, houses flattened by landslides, bridges washed away by rapid waters, ships and boats broken up on the rocks, little old ladies despairing on rooftops waiting for a helicopter to save them and all that live on camera. However here we have a major misunderstanding. The responsibility of a good meteorologist is to forecast the coming weather as well as possible not the outcome which may result. Then to inform the average viewer or listener in straightforward terms calmly, seriously, responsibly and respectfully.

Where exactly a catastrophic storm will strike within a general bad weather front is an unforeseeable event even just before it happens. A sudden rain storm on a wooded mountain in Epirus will have completely different consequences to the same event on the bare mountain Pateras and the insufficient provision for flooding in Mantra. Most news channels however require forecasts accurate to the kilometre and minute where extreme weather conditions will occur and of course the consequences so that they can send camera crews, reporters, experts, passers-by and not in order to broadcast the terrifying event firsthand and exclusively.

Naturally there are some new colleagues who encourage this trend to create an impression, for self promotion, hoping to be easily recognized, to have a wide television audience and many clicks on the internet. Ten days before a virtual emerging bad weather front, according to the numerical weather models, they announce details of unprecedented phenomena such as heavy snowfalls, torrential rains with flooding, landslides, storms, arctic temperatures even in Athens all with a view to terrorizing people. At a personal level some special investigators, amateurs and hands-on practitioners make forecasts in the form of almanacs or horoscopes, naturally for payment, leading to contradictions and confusion. Then we are all in trouble and instead of the weather, the weathermen are the news.

“And so life flows by without paying any attention to your misery”(Savvopoulos) monotonous with mainly unsurprising, repetitive grey events in bright wrappings like school, graduation, degree, marriage, christenings, anniversaries, Christmas, New Year, Easter, August holidays, usually at the same place and then all over again..until the sudden end. In life, birth is predictable, its termination is unpredictable.Finally, unforeseeable events are increasing everywhere dangerously and that makes things difficult. However Hope, which is the last to die, hangs on stoically “Every cloud has a silver lining”. So patience-health and the best is yet to come, unless it has already arrived, when these lines are read.
Tasos Arniakos
Meteorologist, MARCH 2020